Biến đổi khí hậu, quản trị công và bất bình đẳng thu nhập ở Việt Nam: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm cấp tỉnh từ mô hình ARDL

Các tác giả

  • Huỳnh Công Minh Trường Đại học Quốc tế Miền Đông
  • Hoàng Hồng Hiệp Viện Khoa học Xã hội Vùng Trung Bộ, TP. Đà Nẵng, Việt Nam

Từ khóa:

Biến đổi khí hậu, Quản trị công, Bất bình đẳng thu nhập, ARDL

Tóm tắt

Bài báo nghiên cứu tác động của biến đổi khí hậu và quản trị công đối với bất bình đẳng thu nhập tại 63 tỉnh thành của Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2006-2021 thông qua mô hình phân phối trễ tự hồi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag, ARDL). Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy biến đổi khí hậu làm tăng bất bình đẳng thu nhập, trong khi quản trị công làm giảm bất bình đẳng thu nhập tại Việt Nam trong cả ngắn hạn và dài hạn. Cụ thể, tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến bất bình đẳng thu nhập trong ngắn hạn mạnh hơn so với trong dài hạn. Ngược lại, ảnh hưởng của quản trị công trong việc cải thiện tình trạng bất bình đẳng thu nhập về lâu dài có ý nghĩa hơn so với ngắn hạn. Đặc biệt, quản trị công tốt có thể làm giảm tác động bất lợi của biến đổi khí hậu lên phân phối thu nhập.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2005), ‘Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth’, Handbook of Economic Growth 1, 385-472.

Akram, N. (2012), ‘Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies?’, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19(2), 1-18.

Alam, M. M., Taufique, K. M. R., & Sayal, A. (2017), ‘Do climate changes lead to income inequality? Empirical study on the farming community in Malaysia’, International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 16(1), 43-59.

Ali, H. S., Zeqiraj, V., Lin, W. L., & Law, S. Y. (2019), ‘Does quality institutions promote environmental quality?’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26, 10446–10456.

Béné, C., Wood, R. G., Newsham, A., & Davies, M. (2014), ‘Resilience, poverty, and development’, Journal of International Development, 26(5), 598-623.

Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015), ‘Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production’, Nature, 527(7577), 235-239.

Carmignani, F. (2009), ‘The distributive effects of institutional quality when government stability is endogenous’, European Journal of Political Economy 5(4), 409-421.

Cheung, K., & Ping, L. (2004), ‘Spillover Effects of FDI on Innovation in China: Evidence from the Provincial Data’, China Economic Review, 15 (1), 25–44.

Chong, A., & Gradstein, M. (2007), ‘Inequality and Institutions’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (3), 454–465.

Cysne, R. P. (2009), ‘On the positive correlation between income inequality and unemployment’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(1), 218-226.

Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Burke, M. (2019), ‘Global warming has increased global economic inequality’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(20), 9808–9813.

Eakin, H., Lemos, M. C., & Nelson, D. R. (2014), ‘Differentiating capacities as a means to sustainable climate change adaptation’, Global Environmental Change, 27, 1-8.

Fankhauser, S., & Tol, R. S. (2005), ‘On climate change and economic growth’, Resource and Energy Economics, 27(1), 1-17.

Ferrara, A. R., & Nisticò, R. (2019), ‘Does Institutional Quality Matter for Multidimensional Well-Being Inequalities? Insights from Italy’, Social Indicators Research, 145, 1063–1105.

Frazer, G. (2006), ‘Inequality and Development across and within Countries’, World Development, 34 (9), 1459–1481.

Goel, R., Herrala, R., & Mazhar, U. (2013), ‘Institutional Quality and Environmental Pollution: MENA Countries versus the Rest of the World’, Economic Systems, 37 (4), 508–521.

Gradstein, M., Milanovic, B., & Ying, Y. (2001), ‘Democracy And Income Inequality: An Empirical Analysis’, Policy, Research working papers, No. WPS 2561. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (2002), ‘Education and Income Inequality: New Evidence From Cross-Country Data’, Review of Income and Wealth 48 (3), 395-416.

Gupta, S., Davoodi, H., & Alonso-Terme, R. (2002), ‘Does corruption affect income inequality and poverty?’, Economics of Governance, 3(1), 23-45.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., ... & Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016), Shock waves: Managing the impacts of climate change on poverty, World Bank Publications.

Hausman, J. (1978), ‘Specification Tests in Econometrics’, Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271.

Hertel, T. W., & Lobell, D. B. (2014), ‘Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions’, Energy Economics, 46, 562-575.

Hoang, H.H., & Huynh, C.M. (2020), ‘Climate Change, Economic Growth and Growth Determinants: Insights from Vietnam’s Coastal South Central Region’, Journal of Asian and African Studies, 56(3), 693-704.

Hoffman, R. C., Munemo, J., & Watson, S. (2016), ‘International Franchise Expansion: The Role of Institutions and Transaction Costs’, Journal of International Management, 22 (2), 101-114.

Huynh, C. M., & Ho, T.X. (2020), ‘Institutional Quality, Shadow Economy and Air Pollution: Empirical Insights from Developing Countries’, The Empirical Economics Letters, 19 (1), 75-82.

Huynh, C. M., & Hoang, H. H. (2019), ‘Foreign direct investment and air pollution in Asian countries: does institutional quality matter?’, Applied Economics Letters 26(17), 1388–1392.

Huynh, C.M., & Hoang, H.H. (2024), ‘Climate change and income inequality in Asia: how does institutional quality matter?’, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2024.2315700

Huynh, C.M., Le, Q.N., & Lam, T.H.T. (2023), ‘Is air pollution a government failure or a market failure? Global evidence from a multi-dimensional analysis’, Energy Policy, 173, 113384.

Im, K. S., M. H. Pesaran, & Y. Shin. (2003), ‘Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels’, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.

Institute for Economics & Peace (2019), Global Peace Index 2019: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, Sydney, http://visionofhumanity.org/reports.

Islam, N. & Winkel, J. (2017), ‘Climate Change and Social Inequality’, DESA Working Paper No. 152, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 1-30.

Kao, C. (1999), ‘Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data’, Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1–44.

Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. (2023), ‘ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models’, The Stata Journal, 23(4), 983-1019.

Le, Q. H., & Nguyen, H. N. (2019), ‘The impact of income inequality on economic growth in Vietnam: An empirical analysis’, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(5), 617–629.

Leonard, D. K., Bloom, G., Hanson, K., & O’Farrell, J. (2013), ‘Institutional Solutions to the Asymmetric Information Problem in Health and Development Services for the Poor’, World Development, 48, 71–87.

Letta, M., & Tol, R. S. (2019), ‘Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity’, Environmental and Resource Economics, 73(1), 283-305.

Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J., & Rasmussen, K. (2009), ‘Adaptation to climate change in developing countries’, Environmental Management, 43(5), 743-752.

Molua, E. L. (2009), ‘An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon’, Global and Planetary Change, 67(3), 205-208.

North, D. (1991), ‘Institutions’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5 (1), 97–112.

Paglialunga, E., Coveri, A., & Zanfei, A. (2022), ‘Climate change and within-country inequality: New evidence from a global perspective’, World Development, 159, 106030.

Palagi, E., Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., & Roventini, A. (2022), ‘Climate change and the nonlinear impact of precipitation anomalies on income inequality’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(43), e2203595119.

Park, J. (2012), ‘Corruption, soundness of the banking sector, and economic growth: A crosscountry study’, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31 (5), 907-929.

Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995), ‘Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels’, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999), ‘Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-63.

Pesaran, M.H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Royston, P. (2004), ‘Multiple imputation of missing values’, Stata Journal, 4(3), 227-241.

Sheng, Y. (2011), Unemployment and Income Inequality: A Puzzling Finding from the US in 1941-2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2020744, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2020744.

White, I. R., Royston, P., & Wood, A. M. (2011), ‘Multiple imputation using chained equations: Issues and guidance for practice’, Statistics in Medicine, 30(4), 377-399.

Yang, J., & Qiu, M. (2016), ‘The impact of education on income inequality and intergenerational mobility’, China Economic Review, 37, 110-125.

Tải xuống

Đã Xuất bản

23-10-2024

Cách trích dẫn

Huỳnh Công, M., & Hoàng Hồng, H. (2024). Biến đổi khí hậu, quản trị công và bất bình đẳng thu nhập ở Việt Nam: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm cấp tỉnh từ mô hình ARDL. Tạp Chí Kinh Tế Và Phát triển, (328), 2–11. Truy vấn từ http://js.ktpt.edu.vn/index.php/jed/article/view/1784