Liệu lãi suất có tác động tiêu cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế Nhật Bản trong dài hạn? – Tiếp cận dựa trên mô hình VECM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33301/JED.VI.2774Từ khóa:
Tăng trưởng kinh tế, Nhật Bản, chính sách tiền tệ, mô hình VAR, mô hình VECMTóm tắt
Nghiên cứu này áp dụng mô hình VECM để đánh giá tác động trong dài hạn của lãi suất lên tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Nhật Bản. Dữ liệu theo quý giai đoạn 2004–2024 được xử lý trên STATA17. Kết quả cho thấy ba quan hệ đồng liên kết được xác định, trong đó lãi suất tác động tiêu cực đến tăng trưởng GDP và giữ vai trò trung tâm duy trì cân bằng vĩ mô, vừa gắn với tăng trưởng GDP, vừa điều tiết cung tiền M2 cũng như ảnh hưởng đến tỷ giá. Điều này phản ánh đặc thù chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng kéo dài của Nhật Bản, khi ngân hàng trung ương sử dụng kết hợp cung tiền và lãi suất để kiểm soát nền kinh tế, còn tỷ giá đóng vai trò kênh phản ứng nhạy. Từ kết quả này, nghiên cứu khuyến nghị tập trung vào việc quản lý cung tiền, phối hợp chặt chẽ công cụ lãi suất và ổn định tỷ giá để duy trì cân bằng vĩ mô và thúc đẩy tăng trưởng bền vững.
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